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EU ponders next step after Ireland rejects Lisbon Treaty
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By Donny Mahoney and Kim Murphy, Special to The Times
Originally Published June, 13 2008 at 11:50 PM
Updated June, 13 2008 at 11:50 PM
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DUBLIN, IRELAND -- European leaders were scrambling Friday to find a
new path to a more powerful and manageable European Union after Irish
voters rejected a treaty meant to bolster the alliance's government.
The
rejection threw into doubt nearly a decade of efforts to overcome
widespread public skepticism and develop a European constitution. The
reforms would create a powerful European presidency and diplomatic
corps and improve cooperation on law enforcement and defense.
Because the measure must be ratified by all 27 member states of the
alliance, Ireland's rejection struck a potentially fatal blow. European
leaders now face the prospect of resubmitting the treaty to hostile
Irish voters or, to the dismay of all, renegotiating it yet again.
"It is clear that the Lisbon Treaty will not take effect on Jan. 1,
2009," Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU's
longest-serving leader, said after Irish voters rejected the treaty in
a referendum 53% to 46%.
"It's a bad choice for Europe, and for Ireland," Juncker said.
Alliance leaders are scheduled to meet next week, and most vowed to
proceed with winning ratification. In the end, however, the Irish vote
left European governance in the same place it has been almost since the
EU's birth: in paralysis and limbo.
"This
is a leap in the dark," said Brigid Laffan, professor of European
government at University College Dublin. "We don't know what will
happen next."
The European Union was formed in 1993 as a loose
alliance of countries seeking to expand three decades of economic
cooperation into the spheres of security, justice, human rights and
border control. Since then, it has grown in size, complexity and its
ability to compete with world powers.
But, especially after 10
nations joined in 2004, the EU's traditional rule by consensus became
unwieldy, even as demands grew for a more cohesive foreign policy, more
assertive military cooperation, and decision making that could not be
held hostage to a single dissenting country.
Eighteen nations
have fully or partially ratified the treaty, which allows decisions to
be made in many areas by qualified majority vote.
Ireland was
the only nation whose constitution required a referendum, and the 1.6
million citizens who voted Thursday have thrown a wrench into plans for
more than 490 million residents of Europe.
"I am extremely
mindful today . . . of our European partners for whom this vote will
represent a considerable disappointment and a potential setback to many
years of effort," Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said. "Ireland has
no wish to halt the progress of a union which has been the greatest
force for peace and prosperity in the history of Europe."
He
said the Irish government will "reflect on the implications of this
vote" and consult next week at a summit of European Council leaders on
how to proceed. One option would be to call another vote, considered
unlikely given the high turnout and definitive defeat. Another would be
to launch a new round of negotiations on the reforms, which also failed
in an earlier version when French and Dutch voters rejected them in
2005.
"We must not rush to conclusions," Cowen said. "The union
has been in this position before, and each time has found an agreed way
forward. I hope that we can do so again on this occasion."
French
President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel called
for continuing the process of ratification by other member states,
which are considering the treaty through their parliaments. In some
cases, heads of state must also sign the document. Britain is next,
with a vote scheduled in the House of Lords next week.
"We are
convinced that the reforms contained in the Treaty of Lisbon are
necessary to make Europe more democratic and more effective," the two
leaders said.
But British opponents of the treaty were already
signaling their intent to use the Irish defeat as ammunition to call
for a referendum in Britain.
"The French said no to it, the
Dutch said no to it, and it was brought back, and the only people who
have been given a chance to pass judgment on it, the Irish, have now
said no to it," said Conservative Party leader David Cameron.
The
defeat followed a major push for approval by the Irish government,
which argued that the country's economic boom over the last decade has
been fueled by access to the European market and the availability of
billions of euros in EU subsidies for agriculture and infrastructure.
But
a coalition of nationalists, right-wing Catholics, businesspeople and
groups leery of the treaty's potential impact on taxes, agriculture and
abortion policy argued against it.
Analysts said it would be
difficult either to schedule a second referendum or to find areas of
controversy from which Ireland could opt out, allowing the remainder of
the treaty to go forward. Dublin has already established independent
positions under previous agreements on many areas of European policy,
including its traditional stance of military neutrality.
Ireland
could seek more exemptions from sections of the treaty. But Hugo Brady
of the Center for European Reform noted that accepting only parts would
relegate the country to "second-tier status," which he said "would be a
terrible relegation for what was once the EU's poster boy country."
In the end, many voters appeared suspicious of a 300-plus-page document they said was difficult to understand.
"So
few people actually know what actually is in the treaty," said Derek
O'Halloran, a resident of County Kildare. "Even though the EU has been
great for Ireland, most Irish people don't really know the ins and outs
of how the treaty works, or how Europe works, for that matter. And a
lot of people are thinking, 'If I don't understand what I'm voting for,
I'm going to vote no.' "
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